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Market Pricing

Prediction Market Probability & Payout Calculator

A prediction-market contract priced at 65¢ represents a simple 65% market-implied probability and pays $1 if the selected outcome settles successfully, subject to platform rules and fees.

Contract inputs

Live
¢
$

Enter the fee estimate shown by the platform for your order. Fee schedules can vary by platform, contract, price, and order type.

Probability and payout

Live

Market-implied probability

65.00%

American odds equivalent-186
Decimal odds equivalent1.538
Fractional odds equivalent7/13
Opposite outcome price35.00¢
Position cost$65.00
Gross payout if successful$100.00
Gross profit if successful$35.00
Profit after entered fees$35.00
Return on entered cost53.85%

Method and assumptions

How to use this calculator

Prediction-market prices are commonly quoted from 1¢ to 99¢. Dividing the price by 100 gives the simple market-implied probability.

Example

A 65¢ contract costs $0.65 and has a gross $1 payout if it settles successfully. The gross profit is $0.35 before fees. One hundred contracts cost $65 and have a $100 gross payout.

What the calculator does not decide

The price is the market’s current estimate, not a guarantee. Verify settlement criteria, fee treatment, liquidity, order execution, and jurisdictional eligibility on the platform.

Keep checking the math

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Calculator results are informational estimates based on the values entered. They do not guarantee an outcome. Confirm current prices, rules, fees, liquidity, limits, and eligibility on the relevant platform.