All
Value & Bankroll

Expected Value Calculator

An expected value calculator estimates the average value of a decision from the probability and price you enter. It is a math check, not a prediction of the next result.

Inputs

Live
%
$

Results

Live

Expected value per entry

$5.00

Expected value5.00%
Estimated edge2.62%
Your probability55.00%
Market-implied probability52.38%
Profit if successful$90.91
Total payout$190.91

Method and assumptions

How to use this calculator

Expected value estimates the average value of a repeated decision using the price and probability you enter. A positive result means the assumptions produce a favorable mathematical expectation; it does not predict the next outcome.

Formula

EV = (win probability × profit if successful) − (loss probability × stake).

Use either probability or fair odds

Enter your own estimated win percentage, or switch to fair odds and let the calculator convert that price into a probability. Compare the result with the offered market price.

Read the result carefully

Small errors in the probability estimate can materially change EV. Track the assumptions, use current executable prices, and account for fees before making a decision.

Keep checking the math

Related calculators

View the full library →

Market Pricing

Implied Probability Calculator

Convert American, decimal, or fractional odds into implied probability—or convert a probability back into equivalent odds.

Open

Market Pricing

No-Vig Fair Odds Calculator

Remove the market margin from two-sided odds to estimate fair probabilities and prices.

Open

Value & Bankroll

Kelly Criterion Calculator

Estimate a full or fractional Kelly position size from your bankroll, price, and probability estimate.

Open

Calculator results are informational estimates based on the values entered. They do not guarantee an outcome. Confirm current prices, rules, fees, liquidity, limits, and eligibility on the relevant platform.