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Half Point Calculator

A half-point calculator compares the estimated value of an adjusted spread with the extra price charged. The probability assumptions vary by sport and key number.

Inputs

Live

Results

Live
Worth Buying!
Net Value: +2.59%
⭐ 3 is a key number in NFL
Push Probability at This Number9.50%
Value Gained from Half Point4.75%
Cost in Juice2.16%
Original Implied Prob52.38%
New Implied Prob54.55%

Key Numbers (NFL)

3 (9.5%)7 (6%)10 (3.5%)14 (2.5%)17 (2%)21 (1.5%)

Method and assumptions

How to use this calculator

Buying half points on spreads moves the line by 0.5 in your favor, but costs extra juice. This calculator helps you determine if buying the half point is mathematically worth it based on key number frequencies.

Key Numbers

Key numbers are the most common margins of victory. In NFL, 3 and 7 are the biggest key numbers (field goal and touchdown). Games land on 3 about 9.5% of the time.

The Math

If games push on 3 at 9.5%, buying from 3 to 2.5 or 3 to 3.5 captures half that value (~4.75%). Compare this to the extra juice you're paying. If value gained exceeds cost in juice, it's worth it.

General Rules

  • Buying off/onto 3 in NFL is almost always worth it
  • Buying off/onto 7 in NFL is often worth it
  • Buying off non-key numbers is rarely worth the juice
  • NBA key numbers are less pronounced than NFL

Keep checking the math

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Calculator results are informational estimates based on the values entered. They do not guarantee an outcome. Confirm current prices, rules, fees, liquidity, limits, and eligibility on the relevant platform.